Bitcoin ETF hype fails to shake bearish $20K BTC price targets

Bitcoin may have hit 17-month highs, but the ETF launch could end up being a “sell the news event” and engender fresh BTC price downside, one theory argues.

Bitcoin (BTC) marched to 17-month highs on Oct. 24 as exchange-traded fund (ETF) excitement boosted already bullish BTC price action.

Bitcoin ETF data listing hints at “time to shine”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $35,198 on Bitstamp before consolidating.

This represented 17% gains since the prior weekly close and Bitcoin’s highest levels since May 2022.

While back below $34,000 at the time of writing, the mood around the largest cryptocurrency was distinctly optimistic as debate swirled over the potential launch of a Bitcoin spot price ETF in the United States.

Long in the making, appetite for a launch — held back for years by U.S. regulators — was palpable after data for the iShares Spot Bitcoin ETF appeared on the website of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, or DTCC, responsible for clearing Nasdaq trades.

While no official green light has yet been given, the event is increasingly viewed as a matter of time.

Good morning

– #Bitcoin hits $35,000 overnight and reaches new yearly high.
– Spot ETF has 99% chance to be approved.
– Matter of time until altcoins will be picking up pace.

Great times.

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 24, 2023

As part of the response, public Bitcoin ETFs worldwide saw the equivalent of 10% of the year-to-date total in inflows over a single 24-hour period, per data from Bloomberg.

“An SEC approval of the ETF would likely mean that many other Bitcoin ETF approvals are coming,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter, meanwhile, wrote in part of its own coverage.

Kobeissi noted that with the latest move, BTC/USD was up 107% year-to-date, adding $300 billion in market cap.

“As geopolitical tensions worsen, Bitcoin is also being viewed as a safe haven asset,” it concluded.

“Is Bitcoin finally getting its time to shine?”

BTC price taps last upside CME futures gap

Considering the prospects for BTC price going forward, a curious disconnect was apparent between traders and market trajectory.

Related: BTC price nears 2023 highs — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Despite the highs, popular market participants on social media were highly cautious — and some conspicuously bearish.

Among them was popular trading account Ninja, which warned that no further CME Group Bitcoin futures gaps remained above spot price — only below.

With the wick near $36k, all CME gaps to the upside have been filled.

This only means one thing…

$20k$BTC pic.twitter.com/3t8vFp3E72

— Ninja (@Ninjascalp) October 23, 2023

As Cointelegraph reported previously, $20,000 still constitutes a popular downside target, an important psychological boundary, as well as being home to a CME gap.

Meanwhile, others took profit, including analysts and Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.

“This recent price movement reflects the agony of those who HAD to buy, and I’m taking this opportunity to offload my holdings,” he wrote in part of an X post.

Trader Skew covered order book changes on the way up, with market makers (MMs) selling into buyers.

$BTC Coinbase Spot
so with the TWAP buying obviously there needs to be liquidity at best ask to facilitate such a spot buyer

MMs are currently selling into this buyer

Orderbook wise there’s a bit more ask liquidity being quoted towards $37K https://t.co/zx0i9hvhaA pic.twitter.com/oR3p9nJGUC

— Skew Δ (@52kskew) October 24, 2023

“If BTC moves into the mid 30K’s, we have officially front run the ETF approval and I wouldn’t be surprised if it becomes a sell the news event,” fellow trader and analyst Crypto Chase continued.

“Perhaps not the day of the announcement, but not too far after all the participants who waited for the official announcement pile in.”

Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, appeared to doubt the idea that the latest gains differed in character from other bouts of upside in 2023.

*It’s different this time* said the poor man. pic.twitter.com/RgMxm65dqI

— filbfilb (@filbfilb) October 23, 2023

In accompanying X comments, he suggested that Q1 2024 could see Bitcoin “nuke” lower, based on the timing of previous price cycles.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.